Statesboro, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

999
FXUS62 KCHS 070723
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
323 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern continues as multiple frontal boundaries
impact the region. A few storms may become strong to severe
severe this weekend, with damaging winds expected to be the
primary hazard. A brief reprieve in heat then returns early next
week in the wake of a strong cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, the pattern will feature mostly zonal flow with
embedded shortwave energy poised to pass by mostly to the north
of the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over the
Atlantic will extend westward back across the FL peninsula while
a lee trough will be in place east of the southern
Appalachians. For the daytime hours, this setup is expected to
yield warm and humid conditions without much (if any) convective
coverage. Model soundings generally depict MLCAPE values on the
order of 1,500-2,000 J/kg but without much in the way of an
initiating mechanism. With the lee trough situated inland,
surface winds will be westerly for most of the day which should
work to keep the sea breeze pinned closer to the coast and not
particularly progressive. So while we could see isolated
convection along the coastal corridor in the afternoon, we
aren`t expecting much in the way of coverage and we have kept
rain chances in the 20 percent range. The main effect of the
westerly low-level flow will be to support high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s. With dewpoints forecast to be in the low 70s
during peak heating, we should see widespread heat index values
in the 100-105 degree range, falling a few degrees short of
Heat Advisory criteria. Winds will be breezy beginning around
late morning, with frequent gusts up to around 20 mph through
the afternoon.

This evening and tonight: It appears that the best chance for
convection will come during the evening hours and will be
largely dependent on upstream convection moving in from the west
at some point in the evening. Hi-res model data is quite mixed
on the speed, placement, and even existence of the upstream
convective complex in question and its potential to impact some
or all of the forecast area. At this point, current thinking is
that a convective complex will move across north and central GA
in the late afternoon or early evening hours and then push into
the forecast area at some point in the 7-9pm time period. Given
the westerly flow aloft and the track across north and central
GA, it appears the area that stands the best chance of seeing
thunderstorms will be our southeast SC counties. Despite the
timing being after diurnal heating and into the evening, the
environment should be largely undisturbed. The complex will
likely be quite progressive thanks to ~30 knots of mid- level
flow. Model soundings also suggest DCAPE values of 1,000 J/kg or
higher, supporting a damaging wind gust threat with any
thunderstorms that move through. The area we think stands the
best chance to be impacted remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk
threat area, primarily for the wind threat. Whatever does move
through during the evening should shift offshore and away from
the coast through the early morning hours. The rest of the
overnight should be dry and mild with temperatures falling into
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Balmy conditions continue Sunday, with afternoon highs largely
in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Thus,
similar to Saturday, expect heat indices to rise into the 90s to
lower 100s, with the warmest values remaining along and east of
I-95. As always, we encourage you to remain hydrated and to
take break indoors as needed.

In regard to precipitation, Sunday`s atmosphere and setup will
be largely conditional on how Saturday pans out. If convection
does reach our area, could see showers linger through daybreak,
which would put a slight damper on additional development later
that afternoon as the atmosphere works to stabilize itself.
However, if the convection fizzles out before reaching us
Saturday night, think there is a decent chance that our area
could see some strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon and
evening. In terms of dynamics, soundings still show ample CAPE
(upwards of 2000+ J/kg), DCAPE values between 500 to 1000 J/kg,
0-6 km shear around 35 kt, and steep low to mid level lapse
rates (7-8 degC/km). All this to say, IF storms do develop,
believe damaging winds (60+ mph) and hail to the size of
quarters or slightly larger would be possible. We encourage you
to remain weather ready and have multiple ways to receive
warnings!

Otherwise, look for upper level troughing across the Ohio River
Valley to deepen Monday as an upper level low builds over the
Great Lakes region. Sfc cold front ahead of this feature will
take aim at the region Monday afternoon, before stalling out
that evening. As a result, look for renewed chances for showers
and storms to return to the forecast. Expect the aforementioned
upper level trough to continue its journey eastward Tuesday,
pushing yet another sfc cold front toward the region. This will
allow us to see a brief reprieve from the heat, as afternoon
highs settle back into the mid to upper 80s. Lows during this
time will still remain quite mild though, as temperatures only
fall into the lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level pattern shifts heading into Wednesday, with flow
becoming quasi-zonal ahead of modest ridging. Meanwhile, at the
sfc, will see a few frontal boundaries meander around the
region. As such, will likely see daily chances for diurnally
driven showers and storms continue, especially during the late
afternoon hours as the seabreeze pushes inland. Otherwise, look
for highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s to remain common, with
overnight lows generally in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions should prevail for most of the 06z TAF period at
KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. Winds will be westerly for much of the
day, with frequent gusts into the 17-20 knot range expected.
While there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm nearby
in the afternoon, it appears the best chance for thunderstorms
will come during the evening hours and in the last 6 hours or so
of the 06z TAF period. Model guidance remains quite uncertain,
but there is potential for clusters of storms to move in from
the west this evening. The best chances are at KCHS and KJZI,
and we have added VCTS starting at 01z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Typical summertime convection
pattern will bring periodic flight restrictions through early
next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: The gradient will tighten across the local
waters today, allowing for elevated southwest flow into the
15-20 knot range for much of the waters this afternoon and
evening. In fact, there could be a few 25 knot gusts across the
SC waters as well as in Charleston Harbor. However, we think
conditions will fall just shy of Small Craft Advisory
thresholds. Seas should peak around 3 feet today, then increase
up to around 4 feet this evening and overnight as winds
increase.

Sunday through Tuesday: Expect west south-westerly winds to
prevail throughout the period, with sustained speeds between 10
to 20 kt. Winds could become a bit breezy at times, with gusts
up to 23 kt possible as the sea breeze moves inland. Otherwise,
look for seas to range between 2 to 4 ft throughout the period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 7:
KCHS: 75/2021
KCXM: 79/2021

June 8:
KCHS: 76/1980
KCXM: 78/2021
KSAV: 79/1881

June 9:
KCHS: 77/1978
KSAV: 77/1877

June 11:
KCHS: 76/2020
KSAV: 76/2010

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...BSH/SST
MARINE...BSH/SST